LA SECONDA ONDATA
Scritto il 28 aprile, 2010, alle ore 12:30 am
E’ in arrivo la arci-prevista (vedi post precedenti in tema di economia) seconda ondata della Grande Crisi Finanziaria iniziata nel 2008. La fragilità finanziaria, nell’ultimo anno, non è scomparsa: è un po’ diminuita nelle grandi banche internazionali, ma solo perchè altri soggetti (per lo più pubblici) se ne sono fatti carico (direttamente, con i salvataggi, o indirettamente, tramite il calo delle entrate fiscali). Ora sono sotto tiro i titoli del debito pubblico non solo della Grecia, ma anche dell’Italia. Ieri il differenziale dei tassi del debito pubblico italiano rispetto ai titoli del debito tedeschi è schizzato oltre i 100 punti base: il trend degli ultimi giorni mette paura.
Chiariamo subito che Tremonti e Berlusconi hanno una ENORME responsabilità in questi fatti. Sono loro che nel 2003-05 hanno fatto letteralmente saltare il Patto di Stabilità Europeo (che bene o male, nonostante i trucchi contabili e la finanza creativa di diversi paesi, teneva a freno i deficit europei). Nessuno più di quei due ha aperto alla Grecia un’autostrada… verso il disastro. Sono ancora loro che qui in Italia – da quando è esplosa la crisi finanziaria globale - hanno scelto di non fare nulla, aspettando che “passasse la nottata”: così il nostro paese arriva impreparato al momento più difficile.
Berlusconi, Tremonti, Brunetta, Scajola… avrebbero potuto far passare in Parlamento le riforme necessarie al risanamento strutturale del bilancio pubblico, così da mettere i titoli del debito al riparo da ogni crisi di fiducia, e quindi al riparo dalla speculazione. I sacrifici e le riforme necessarie, votate in Parlamento, sarebbero entrati automaticamente in vigore solo a crisi finita, fra tre-quattro anni. (Sacrifici che avrei voluto soprattutto a carico della classe politica, ormai confusa e complice con l’alta burocrazia, una elité che sta succhiando il sangue a questo paese, come ha evidenziato - fra gli altri – lo scandalo della Protezione Civile).
Al contrario, le destre italiane hanno seguito la strada opposta, quella sbagliata.
1. Finanza allegra e creativa negli anni buoni.
2. Rigidità di bilancio proprio in quei due-tre anni di crisi (2008-10) nei quali l’economia andava sostenuta (e ogni soldo speso dallo stato avrebbe procurato ritorni altissimi, anche in termini di entrate fiscali).
3. Nessun intervento sui trend di lungo periodo della spesa pubblica. Al contrario, un magna magna generale, e l’attenzione distolta dalle leggi ad personam, o da maldestri tentativi di riforme istituzionali volte a aumentare l’opacità e i poteri della “casta” politica.
4. A ciò aggiungiamo il ruolo delle destre sia italiane che mondiali nella deregulation (vedi depenalizzazione del falso in bilancio in Italia; ecc.) hanno avuto nel favorire negli anni di Bush la fragilità finanziaria.
5. E aggiungiamo il nefasto ruolo della Merkel nel procrastinare l’aiuto Europeo alla Grecia mentre il fuoco greco già si stava propagando.
Sicché ora è diventato un incendio molto più difficile da spegnere: pura incompetenza? (la destra, si sà, disprezza gli economisti, la cultura, l’alta competenza: “ghe pensi mi!”) Cinico calcolo elettorale?
Comunque sia, ora noi tutti ci apprestiamo a pagarne le conseguenze.
Come spiega l’Economist, la metà del rischio di contagio è dovuto all’esposizione delle banche tedesche francesi ecc alle banche greche, che a loro volta sno esposte ai titoli pubblici greci. La complessità del capitalismo e dell’economia di mercato, che destava tanta fierezza (e benessere), sta rivelandosi il tallone d’achille della nostra civiltà.
http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16009119
MI PARE CHE LA BCE SCHERZI COL FUOCO!
Trichet Plays for Time as Greek Crisis Spreads Beyond Europe
May 7 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet played for time as Greece’s fiscal crisis spread across the Atlantic to drive stocks down in the U.S. and Latin America.
The euro slid to a 14-month low yesterday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped the most in a year after Trichet resisted taking any new steps to stem contagion. The ECB hasn’t discussed the option of buying government bonds and the onus is on European politicians to cut budget deficits, he said.
The risk for Trichet is that a refusal to act will see contagion worsen in Portugal and Spain, intensifying speculation that they will be forced to follow Greece and seek an international bailout. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Spanish and Portuguese debt yesterday rose to the highest since the euro’s inception in 1999.
“Today’s price action is a call to arms for the central bankers that we hope they hear,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage the equivalent of about $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow. “This isn’t the end of the story.”
The euro fell to $1.2529, taking its slide against the dollar since late November to 16 percent. The Dow average, which earlier plunged the most since the 1987 crash, dropped 3.2 percent, and Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell to a three-month low. That came after the premium on Spain’s 10-year government bonds over German bunds rose as high as 166 basis points.
‘If You Feel Mush, Push’
Markets will continue to test the resolve of policy makers by selling the euro and bonds of high-deficit economies, said Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. “In sword fighting it is said if you feel mush, push,” he said. “The market feels mush.”
Trichet is trying to convince investors that turmoil in euro-region markets will subside once the Greek government draws on its 110 billion-euro ($140 billion) aid package and implements an austerity plan. He urged other European governments to take “decisive” action on deficits.
“They see this as a political problem and are looking to the politicians to provide a lead, but the point at which the ECB can do nothing and let markets heal themselves is ending,” said Thomson.
Germany, which will provide the biggest share of Europe’s bilateral loans to Greece, will vote on its contribution today. Euro-area leaders will then meet later in Brussels to sign off on the aid package, which is being co-financed by the International Monetary Fund.
Deadly Protests
Greece’s parliament yesterday approved the austerity measures demanded in return for the bailout amid public unrest. Three people died in a fire in Athens on May 5 set by protesters during a general strike against wage cuts and tax increases.
Investors are concerned that Greece, which had its credit rating cut to junk by Standard & Poor’s last week, won’t be able to make the budget cuts demanded of it and could default on its debts, a fear that is spreading to Europe’s other indebted nations. Moody’s Investors Service put its Aa2 credit rating on Portugal on review for a possible downgrade this week.
Trichet’s stance yesterday was “reminiscent of the one we saw during the credit crisis,” when the ECB refused to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to buy government bonds, said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank in Amsterdam.
ECB Armory
If the crisis persists, the ECB “will probably bring back its full array of liquidity-providing operations” such as unlimited long-term loans to banks, said Kounis. “However, we doubt that the central bank will go into the government bond buying business.”
While the ECB cannot buy government bonds directly, it could do so in the secondary market. The concern is that directly financing national deficits runs counter to the ECB’s founding treaty and could also fan inflation, the containment of which is the ECB’s main mandate.
Tabling a proposal to buy government debt could lead to a split on the ECB’s Governing Council, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels.
“I can’t see that Germany would accept it,” he said. “It’s questionable whether the purchase of government bonds would have any positive effect and as long as you can’t guarantee the success, you have to ask whether it’s worth breaking the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty.”
Germany’s Axel Weber said May 5 that the threat of a spreading crisis doesn’t merit “using every means.”
‘Nuclear Button’
Trichet “did not explicitly rule out bond buying, rather just replied that it was not discussed today,” said Christoph Rieger, co-head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “This approach can be considered consistent with the ECB’s principles. But it risks that the market will still force the ECB’s hand before long.”
Should further steps be needed, the ECB may take them May 20, when its council meets for a regular mid-month meeting that isn’t followed by a press conference, said Christel Aranda- Hassel, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in London. “If the market seizes up, the ECB is likely to implement further unconventional measures,” she said.
Trichet made clear yesterday that the ECB always takes the appropriate decisions, even if they’re not conventional, said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.
“That suggests some flexibility,” he said. “Should contagion take on a new dimension, the ECB will be forced to press the nuclear button and buy government bonds.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Gabi Thesing in London at gthesing@bloomberg.net